Loan & Credit

May 25 2019

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Recent articles related to economics


VOX CEPR Policy Portal

Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

Xi and Trump miss a chance to expand markets

Jeffrey Frankel, 29 March 2019

The supposed deadline for a conclusion to China–US trade negotiations has been postponed until late April. This column argues that the structural reform aspect of the negotiations is reminiscent of US negotiations with Japan three decades ago, and that the Structural Impediments Initiative between the two countries could, in theory, serve as a useful model for the current US–China negotiations. The question is whether Presidents Trump and Xi have as firm a grasp on economic principles as their predecessors.

Border regimes and knowledge spillovers through the supply chain

Bruno Merlevede, Victoria Purice, 29 March 2019

Supplying inputs to multinational firms has been shown to increase the productivity of domestic firms, while borders have been shown to substantially reduce trade activities. This column investigates whether spillover effects from multinationals on local firms occur when firms are separated by a national border. Using data for seven Central and Eastern European countries and their neighbours, it finds that cross-border spillovers only occur after EU integration, and that participation in the Schengen Area magnifies these effects. The results bear testimony to successful EU integration and warn about potential productivity costs to local firms should border controls be reinstated.

Immigration, inequality and intergenerational mobility in the US

Thor Berger, Per Engzell, 28 March 2019

There are striking regional variations in economic opportunity across the US. This column proposes a historical explanation for this, showing that local levels of income equality and intergenerational mobility in the US resemble those of the European countries that current inhabitants trace their origins from. The findings point to the persistence of differences in local culture, norms, and institutions.

Disruption and credit markets

Bo Becker, Victoria Ivashina, 28 March 2019

In the past 30 years, defaults on corporate bonds in the US have been substantially above the historical average. Using firm-level data, this column shows that the increase in credit risk can be largely attributed to an increase in the rate at which new and fast-growing firms displace incumbents, a phenomenon defined as ‘disruption’. Incumbent revenue growth suffers when there are many IPOs in an industry, and newly issued bonds in high-disruption industries have higher yields.

Monetary policy and the labour share

Cristiano Cantore, Filippo Ferroni, Miguel León-Ledesma, 27 March 2019

Despite its importance, there is no systematic empirical evidence on the effect of monetary policy shocks on the share of output allocated to wages. Using data for five developed economies, this column finds that standard models generate the ‘wrong sign’ for the effect when compared to the empirical results, and that the labour share temporarily increases following a positive shock to the interest rate. Using the standard models to analyse the distributional effects of monetary shocks could be misleading.

Other Recent Columns:

David Martinez-Miera, Rafael Repullo, 27 March 2019

Michael Kremer, Christopher Snyder, Albert Chen, 26 March 2019

Antonio Fatás, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 26 March 2019

Yashaswini Dunga, Nancy Hardie, Stephanie Kelly, Jeremy Lawson, 25 March 2019

Alison Booth, Xin Meng, 25 March 2019

Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, Magne Mogstad, 24 March 2019

Moshe Hazan, David Weiss, Hosny Zoabi, 23 March 2019

Rita Cappariello, Michele Mancini, Filippo Vergara Caffarelli, 22 March 2019

Semih Akcomak, Bastiaan Overvest, 22 March 2019

Giuseppe Ferrero, Mario Pietrunti, Andrea Tiseno, 21 March 2019

Marlene Amstad, 21 March 2019

Markus K Brunnermeier, Dirk Niepelt, 20 March 2019

Al Slivinski, Nathan Sussman, 20 March 2019

David Autor, 19 March 2019

Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 18 March 2019

Le-Yu Chen, Ekaterina Oparina, Nattavudh Powdthavee, Sorawoot Srisuma, 18 March 2019

David Andolfatto, 17 March 2019

Mengjia Ren, Lee Branstetter, Brian Kovak, Daniel Armanios, Jiahai Yuan, 16 March 2019

Agata Maida, Andrea Weber, 15 March 2019

Sebastian Doerr, José-Luis Peydró, Hans-Joachim Voth, 15 March 2019

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